Chatham County’s Growth and What It Means for Development
By Mike Roselli, PE, PLA –
Chatham County is changing — fast. In just the past four years, the county has added more than 7,600 new residents, a 10% increase. That kind of growth doesn’t just move the needle on population charts; it reshapes housing demand, infrastructure needs, and development opportunities across the region.
At the 2025 State of Chatham Breakfast, local leaders shared a trove of data on demographics, housing, and the economy (available here). For those of us in land development, the message is clear: Chatham is a market that can’t be ignored. Here are the insights that matter most:
1. Growth Is Real — and It’s Aging
Nearly half of Chatham’s new residents are 65 or older. This is not just about numbers; it’s about reshaping community design.
Developments can’t simply focus on adding more housing stock — they need to prioritize senior-friendly communities with accessible floor plans and universal design features.
The aging trend is creating a parallel market opportunity: while younger families will continue to shape the workforce housing sector, seniors will increasingly drive demand for age-targeted communities that combine independence with supportive amenities.
2. Housing Supply Isn’t Keeping Up
The numbers speak volumes:
- Median home prices in Pittsboro are up nearly 40% since 2021.
- Nearly 50% of renters are cost-burdened, spending more than 30% of income on housing.
This creates a twofold pressure:
- Ownership affordability is being pushed further out of reach for first-time buyers.
- Rental affordability is eroding as older, lower-cost units are renovated and repriced higher.
For developers, this opens a wide lane for attainable multifamily products, townhomes, and smaller-lot subdivisions. The greatest long-term demand may not be in luxury units alone, but in projects that meet the needs of the “missing middle”: workforce families, young professionals, and seniors on fixed incomes.
3. Income Trends Fuel Both Sides of the Market
Chatham now ranks #1 in North Carolina for per capita income growth. That statistic highlights one of the county’s most unique dynamics: in-migration is being driven largely by higher-earning households relocating from Wake County, the Northeast, and the Midwest.
This trend creates a dual-market opportunity:
- Upscale communities for higher-income newcomers.
- Entry-level housing and first-time buyer products for younger working families who want to live where they work but are increasingly priced out of neighboring counties.
The development landscape isn’t either/or — it’s both. Builders who can design communities that span price points and demographics will be best positioned for success.
4. Commuting Defines Location Strategy
Chatham’s commuting patterns are stark: 81% of residents leave the county daily for work. This reality has two major implications:
- Residential development needs to follow the commuter corridors. Projects near highways and transit routes to Wake County and the Triangle will remain in high demand.
- Commercial development is an untapped opportunity. Families want to work closer to home. Investing in office, retail, and mixed-use projects that create local jobs will help capture dollars that currently flow out of the county every morning.
Mixed-use nodes — places that combine housing, retail, healthcare, and employment — are not just attractive to residents, they are strategic development plays that align with broader county planning goals.
My Takeaway
Chatham County is a live case study in what’s happening across North Carolina: strong in-migration, rising incomes, and housing pressure are colliding.
The county’s combination of rapid growth and supply constraints makes it a high-potential market for private development across multiple housing types. But the biggest long-term opportunities will likely be in:
- Middle-market and senior-friendly housing
- Multifamily developments at attainable price points
- First-time homebuyer products that keep younger families in the community
The lesson for developers is clear: the projects that succeed will be those that balance profitability with community need. In a county where growth is both a challenge and an opportunity, success will belong to those who can deliver housing that is accessible, attainable, and aligned with the future of Chatham County.
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Mike Roselli, PE, PLA serves as Vice President of Underfoot Engineering and serves the community on the Town of Cary Planning and Zoning Board. Want your next development to succeed by design? Let’s connect.